Grafton R4

14:20South Grafton Ex-Servicemen's Club Country Boosted Showcase Mdn Plate
1410mMaidenRail: +3m
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 11 July 14:08 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

South Grafton Ex-Servicemen's Club Country Boosted Showcase Mdn Platea 1410m maiden at Grafton, jumping at 14:20 on ground, rail +3m. 20 runners engaged.

At the trip

Grafton has staged 37 races at 1410m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Middle (5–9) wins the most races here — 19 of 37 (51.4% win share); Wide (10+) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.51 (4 from 85).
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 17 of 37 (45.9% win share); Settle position 7–10 underperforms its market price — A/E 0.32 (3 from 109).
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 17 of 37 (45.9% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions (+3m ±1m) covers only 7 runnings — too small to lean on.

  • For the record: Middle (5–9) accounted for 5 of the 7 winners (5 from 32 runners, A/E 1.33) in that limited data — colour, not signal; the overall numbers above carry more weight.

Jockeys & trainers

  • Jockey Nash Rawiller: 27 from 122 (22.1%) in the last 90 days (5 of those in the last 30) — rides #17 Occupation here.
  • Jockey Aaron Bullock: 35 from 172 (20.3%) in the last 90 days (16 of those in the last 30) — rides #16 You Are Mind here.
  • Trainer Shane Everson is 11 from 68 at today’s meeting profile (16.2% strike, A/E 1.81) and has #9 Halloween Holly here.
  • Jockey Karl Zechner is 2 from 10 at today’s meeting profile (20.0% strike, A/E 1.80) and has #7 Cook My Goose here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1410m · 37 races (37 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)1391437.8%10.1%0.72
Middle (5–9)1611951.4%11.8%1.08
Wide (10+)85410.8%4.7%0.51

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)991745.9%17.2%1.13
On-pace (4–6)991232.4%12.1%0.93
Midfield (7–10)10938.1%2.8%0.32
Backmarkers (11+)3312.7%3%0.39
Unknown45410.8%8.9%0.81

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)438.1%75%1.32
Pop ($2–5)761745.9%22.4%0.78
Mid ($5–10)851027%11.8%0.87
Roughie (>$10)220718.9%3.2%0.74

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.