Grafton R3

13:40The Balanced Competitor Showcase Hcp (C1)
1006mClass 1Rail: +3m
Races1234567

Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 11 July 14:08 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

The Balanced Competitor Showcase Hcp (C1)a 1006m class 1 at Grafton, jumping at 13:40 on ground, rail +3m. 17 runners engaged.

At the trip

Grafton has staged 26 races at 1006m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Inside (1–4) wins the most races here — 16 of 26 (61.5% win share); Middle (5–9) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.54 (6 from 109).
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 16 of 26 (61.5% win share); Settle position 7–10 underperforms its market price — A/E 0.51 (3 from 68).
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 14 of 26 (53.8% win share); Mid ($5–10) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.31 (2 from 44).

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions (+3m ±1m) covers 10 runnings — indicative rather than conclusive.

  • Barrier draw: edge tilts to Inside (1–4) — A/E 1.02 (6 from 39); overall it's Wide (10+).
  • Pace: edge tilts to Settle position 7–10 — A/E 1.12 (3 from 31); overall it's Settle position 1–3.
  • Market: read holds — Pop ($2–5) again on top: A/E 1.35 (7 from 17).

Jockeys & trainers

  • Jockey Jean Van Overmeire: 36 from 206 (17.5%) in the last 90 days (14 of those in the last 30) — rides #8 Vantante here.
  • Jockey Bailie Baker: 8 from 51 (15.7%) in the last 90 days — rides #6 Autumngirl here.
  • Trainer L J Clapham is 4 from 30 at today’s meeting profile (13.3% strike, A/E 1.92) and has #13 Devious Mind here.
  • Jockey Karl Zechner is 2 from 10 at today’s meeting profile (20.0% strike, A/E 1.80) and has #13 Devious Mind here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1006m · 26 races (26 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)1031661.5%15.5%0.97
Middle (5–9)109623.1%5.5%0.54
Wide (10+)34415.4%11.8%1.06

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)721661.5%22.2%1.14
On-pace (4–6)70519.2%7.1%0.60
Midfield (7–10)68311.5%4.4%0.51
Backmarkers (11+)1600%0%0.00
Unknown2027.7%10%0.83

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)10623.1%60%0.92
Pop ($2–5)431453.8%32.6%1.08
Mid ($5–10)4427.7%4.5%0.31
Roughie (>$10)149415.4%2.7%0.73

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.