Sunshine Coast R1

12:05Your Capability Store Mdn Hcp
2200mMaidenRail: +3m
Races12345678

Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 11 July 14:09 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Your Capability Store Mdn Hcpa 2200m maiden at Sunshine Coast, jumping at 12:05 on ground, rail +3m. 11 runners engaged.

At the trip

Sunshine Coast has staged 14 races at 2200m in our sample — indicative rather than conclusive.

  • Barrier draw: Middle (5–9) wins the most races here — 7 of 14 (50.0% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Pace: Settle position 7–10 wins the most races here — 4 of 14 (28.6% win share) — and beats its market price too (A/E 1.74).
  • Market: Mid ($5–10) wins the most races here — 7 of 14 (50.0% win share) — and beats its market price too (A/E 1.59).
  • Data note: settling position is unknown for 40 runners in this sample, which dilutes the pace numbers.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions (+3m ±1m) covers only 4 runnings — too small to lean on.

  • For the record: Mid ($5–10) accounted for 2 of the 4 winners (2 from 9 runners, A/E 1.53) in that limited data — colour, not signal; the overall numbers above carry more weight.

Jockeys & trainers

  • Jockey Jag Guthmann-Chester: 7 from 33 (21.2%) in the last 30 days — rides #4 Old Faithful here.
  • Trainer Jack Bruce: 24 from 127 (18.9%) in the last 90 days (8 of those in the last 30) — saddles #1 Kojak here.
  • Jockey Taylor Marshall is 4 from 29 at today’s meeting profile (13.8% strike, A/E 1.32) and has #10 Rotate here.
  • Trainer Billy Healey is 20 from 125 at today’s meeting profile (16.0% strike, A/E 1.22) and has #5 Clench here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
2200m · 14 races (14 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)54642.9%11.1%0.71
Middle (5–9)58750%12.1%0.93
Wide (10+)1717.1%5.9%0.90

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)30321.4%10%0.68
On-pace (4–6)30321.4%10%0.56
Midfield (7–10)25428.6%16%1.74
Backmarkers (11+)400%0%0.00
Unknown40428.6%10%0.81

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)317.1%33.3%0.57
Pop ($2–5)32535.7%15.6%0.59
Mid ($5–10)32750%21.9%1.59
Roughie (>$10)6217.1%1.6%0.39

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.