HoofMetricsdata · model · edge
← Sunshine CoastSunday 12 July 2026

Sunshine Coast R4

14:05Maroochy RSL Club Mdn Plate
1400mMaidenRail: +3m
Race AnalysisStatistics
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 11 July 14:09 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Maroochy RSL Club Mdn Plate — a 1400m maiden at Sunshine Coast, jumping at 14:05 on — ground, rail +3m. 21 runners engaged.

At the trip

Sunshine Coast has staged 84 races at 1400m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Inside (1–4) wins the most races here — 35 of 84 (41.7% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Pace: Settle position 4–6 wins the most races here — 19 of 84 (22.6% win share); Settle position 11+ underperforms its market price — A/E 0.37 (3 from 108).
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 46 of 84 (54.8% win share); Roughie (>$10) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.58 (13 from 536).
  • Data note: settling position is unknown for 308 runners in this sample, which dilutes the pace numbers.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions (+3m ±1m) covers 17 runnings — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: read holds — Wide (10+) again on top: A/E 1.00 (5 from 56).
  • Pace: read holds — Settle position 4–6 again on top: A/E 1.52 (5 from 27).
  • Market: read holds — Pop ($2–5) again on top: A/E 1.40 (11 from 27).

Jockeys & trainers

  • Jockey Jag Guthmann-Chester: 7 from 33 (21.2%) in the last 30 days — rides #2 Phoenix Legend here.
  • Jockey Ron Stewart is 4 from 25 at today’s meeting profile (16.0% strike, A/E 1.46) and has #10 Tintaura here.
  • Trainer Billy Healey is 20 from 125 at today’s meeting profile (16.0% strike, A/E 1.22) and has #15 Voltessa here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1400m · 84 races (84 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)3263541.7%10.7%0.88
Middle (5–9)3682732.1%7.3%0.70
Wide (10+)2322226.2%9.5%0.92

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)1621720.2%10.5%0.84
On-pace (4–6)1621922.6%11.7%1.00
Midfield (7–10)1861517.9%8.1%0.81
Backmarkers (11+)10833.6%2.8%0.37
Unknown3083035.7%9.7%0.83

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)1167.1%54.5%0.96
Pop ($2–5)1554654.8%29.7%1.06
Mid ($5–10)2241922.6%8.5%0.63
Roughie (>$10)5361315.5%2.4%0.58

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.