HoofMetricsdata · model · edge
← BairnsdaleMonday 13 July 2026

Bairnsdale R3

13:30TRFM Mdn Plate
1200mMaidenRail: True
Race AnalysisStatistics
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 12 July 18:17 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

TRFM Mdn Plate — a 1200m maiden at Bairnsdale, jumping at 13:30 on — ground, rail true. 19 runners engaged.

At the trip

Bairnsdale has staged 15 races at 1200m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Middle (5–9) wins the most races here — 10 of 15 (66.7% win share) — and beats its market price too (A/E 1.24).
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 and Settle position 4–6 win the most races here — 5 of 15 each (33.3% win share); the value band has been Settle position 4–6 — A/E 1.25 (5 from 36).
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 5 of 15 (33.3% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Data note: settling position is unknown for 37 runners in this sample, which dilutes the pace numbers.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions covers 15 runnings — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: read holds — Middle (5–9) again on top: A/E 1.24 (10 from 67).
  • Pace: read holds — Settle position 4–6 again on top: A/E 1.25 (5 from 36).
  • Market: edge tilts to Odds-on (≤$2) — A/E 1.25 (4 from 5); overall it's Pop ($2–5).

Jockeys & trainers

  • Jockey Jason Maskiell is 4 from 10 at today’s meeting profile (40.0% strike, A/E 1.65) and has #12 Lochend Princess here.
  • Jockey Craig Newitt is 4 from 20 at today’s meeting profile (20.0% strike, A/E 1.61) and has #16 Gazillion here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1200m · 15 races (15 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)57213.3%3.5%0.30
Middle (5–9)671066.7%14.9%1.24
Wide (10+)55320%5.5%0.82

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)36533.3%13.9%0.93
On-pace (4–6)36533.3%13.9%1.25
Midfield (7–10)47213.3%4.3%0.52
Backmarkers (11+)2300%0%0.00
Unknown37320%8.1%0.81

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)5426.7%80%1.25
Pop ($2–5)23533.3%21.7%0.80
Mid ($5–10)34320%8.8%0.68
Roughie (>$10)117320%2.6%0.66

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.