HoofMetricsdata · model · edge
← BairnsdaleMonday 13 July 2026

Bairnsdale R4

14:00Four 'N' Twenty Mdn Plate
1600mMaidenRail: True
Race AnalysisStatistics
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 12 July 18:17 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Four 'N' Twenty Mdn Plate — a 1600m maiden at Bairnsdale, jumping at 14:00 on — ground, rail true. 12 runners engaged.

At the trip

Bairnsdale has staged 15 races at 1600m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Inside (1–4) wins the most races here — 7 of 15 (46.7% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 5 of 15 (33.3% win share) — and beats its market price too (A/E 1.22).
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 6 of 15 (40.0% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Data note: settling position is unknown for 65 runners in this sample, which dilutes the pace numbers.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions covers 15 runnings — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: read holds — Wide (10+) again on top: A/E 0.83 (4 from 54).
  • Pace: read holds — Settle position 1–3 again on top: A/E 1.22 (5 from 30).
  • Market: read holds — Roughie (>$10) again on top: A/E 0.90 (4 from 105).

Jockeys & trainers

  • Jockey Craig Newitt is 4 from 20 at today’s meeting profile (20.0% strike, A/E 1.61) and has #3 Churchill Lane here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1600m · 15 races (15 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)55746.7%12.7%0.82
Middle (5–9)65426.7%6.2%0.81
Wide (10+)54426.7%7.4%0.83

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)30533.3%16.7%1.22
On-pace (4–6)30213.3%6.7%0.47
Midfield (7–10)34213.3%5.9%0.74
Backmarkers (11+)1516.7%6.7%0.85
Unknown65533.3%7.7%0.81

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)216.7%50%0.81
Pop ($2–5)27640%22.2%0.81
Mid ($5–10)40426.7%10%0.76
Roughie (>$10)105426.7%3.8%0.90

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.