Thank You BRC Members (Bm56) — a 1200m benchmark 56 at Bairnsdale, jumping at 16:30 on — ground, rail true. 15 runners engaged.
At the trip
Bairnsdale has staged 15 races at 1200m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.
- Barrier draw: Middle (5–9) wins the most races here — 10 of 15 (66.7% win share) — and beats its market price too (A/E 1.24).
- Pace: Settle position 1–3 and Settle position 4–6 win the most races here — 5 of 15 each (33.3% win share); the value band has been Settle position 4–6 — A/E 1.25 (5 from 36).
- Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 5 of 15 (33.3% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
- Data note: settling position is unknown for 37 runners in this sample, which dilutes the pace numbers.
Rail effect
Grouping similar rail positions covers 15 runnings — a sample worth weighting.
- Barrier draw: read holds — Middle (5–9) again on top: A/E 1.24 (10 from 67).
- Pace: read holds — Settle position 4–6 again on top: A/E 1.25 (5 from 36).
- Market: edge tilts to Odds-on (≤$2) — A/E 1.25 (4 from 5); overall it's Pop ($2–5).
Jockeys & trainers
- Trainer Alexander Rae: 11 from 40 (27.5%) in the last 90 days (5 of those in the last 30) — saddles #1 Firerated here.
- Trainer A & J Williams: 6 from 19 (31.6%) in the last 90 days — saddles #4 Racetothebottom here.
- Jockey Jason Maskiell is 4 from 10 at today’s meeting profile (40.0% strike, A/E 1.65) and has #5 Gen Zed here.
- Jockey Craig Newitt is 4 from 20 at today’s meeting profile (20.0% strike, A/E 1.61) and has #6 Palazzo Dama here.