Dubbo R2

12:25Stone & Wood Mdn Hcp
1600mMaidenRail: +3m
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 12 July 18:17 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Stone & Wood Mdn Hcpa 1600m maiden at Dubbo, jumping at 12:25 on ground, rail +3m. 10 runners engaged.

At the trip

Dubbo has staged 19 races at 1600m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Inside (1–4) wins the most races here — 10 of 19 (52.6% win share); the value band has been Wide (10+) — A/E 1.86 (3 from 25).
  • Pace: Settle position 4–6 wins the most races here — 7 of 19 (36.8% win share) — and beats its market price too (A/E 1.21).
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 12 of 19 (63.2% win share); Mid ($5–10) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.50 (3 from 43).
  • Data note: settling position is unknown for 62 runners in this sample, which dilutes the pace numbers.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions covers 9 runnings — indicative rather than conclusive.

  • Barrier draw: read holds — Wide (10+) again on top: A/E 1.53 (2 from 13).
  • Pace: read holds — Settle position 4–6 again on top: A/E 1.11 (4 from 24).
  • Market: read holds — Pop ($2–5) again on top: A/E 1.39 (7 from 17).

Jockeys & trainers

  • Jockey Damon Budler: 16 from 90 (17.8%) in the last 90 days (6 of those in the last 30) — rides #10 Sonnig here.
  • Trainer Anthony Mountney: 5 from 31 (16.1%) in the last 90 days — saddles #10 Sonnig here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1600m · 19 races (19 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)761052.6%13.2%0.98
Middle (5–9)83631.6%7.2%0.53
Wide (10+)25315.8%12%1.86

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)39421.1%10.3%0.68
On-pace (4–6)39736.8%17.9%1.21
Midfield (7–10)36210.5%5.6%0.63
Backmarkers (11+)800%0%0.00
Unknown62631.6%9.7%0.82

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)4210.5%50%0.97
Pop ($2–5)411263.2%29.3%1.04
Mid ($5–10)43315.8%7%0.50
Roughie (>$10)96210.5%2.1%0.54

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.