HoofMetricsdata · model · edge
← DubboMonday 13 July 2026

Dubbo R7

15:35Tooheys New (Bm74)
1000mBenchmark 74Rail: +3m
Race AnalysisStatistics
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 12 July 18:17 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Tooheys New (Bm74) — a 1000m benchmark 74 at Dubbo, jumping at 15:35 on — ground, rail +3m. 11 runners engaged.

At the trip

Dubbo has staged 31 races at 1000m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Middle (5–9) wins the most races here — 15 of 31 (48.4% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 13 of 31 (41.9% win share) — and beats its market price too (A/E 1.22).
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 17 of 31 (54.8% win share); Roughie (>$10) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.40 (3 from 179).
  • Data note: settling position is unknown for 90 runners in this sample, which dilutes the pace numbers.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions covers 9 runnings — indicative rather than conclusive.

  • Barrier draw: read holds — Middle (5–9) again on top: A/E 1.20 (6 from 42).
  • Pace: edge tilts to Settle position 7–10 — A/E 1.11 (3 from 26); overall it's Settle position 11+.
  • Market: read holds — Pop ($2–5) again on top: A/E 1.04 (6 from 21).

Jockeys & trainers

  • Trainer D R Mirfin: 6 from 30 (20.0%) in the last 90 days — saddles #2 Mountain Top here.
  • Trainer Ms J Clement: 21 from 121 (17.4%) in the last 90 days — saddles #3 Prince Of Sepang here.
  • Trainer Angus Stewart is 3 from 12 at today’s meeting profile (25.0% strike, A/E 1.50) and has #6 Gail Jeanette here.
  • Jockey Mathew Cahill is 10 from 48 at today’s meeting profile (20.8% strike, A/E 1.48) and has #7 Rothgate here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1000m · 31 races (31 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)1231238.7%9.8%0.72
Middle (5–9)1411548.4%10.6%0.94
Wide (10+)57412.9%7%0.77

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)691341.9%18.8%1.22
On-pace (4–6)69412.9%5.8%0.50
Midfield (7–10)76412.9%5.3%0.50
Backmarkers (11+)1726.5%11.8%1.57
Unknown90825.8%8.9%0.82

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)326.5%66.7%1.15
Pop ($2–5)651754.8%26.2%0.95
Mid ($5–10)74929%12.2%0.84
Roughie (>$10)17939.7%1.7%0.40

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.