Dubbo R5

14:20XXXX Ultra Country Boosted (Bm58)
1100mBenchmark 58Rail: +3m
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 12 July 18:17 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

XXXX Ultra Country Boosted (Bm58)a 1100m benchmark 58 at Dubbo, jumping at 14:20 on ground, rail +3m. 14 runners engaged.

At the trip

Dubbo has staged 27 races at 1100m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Inside (1–4) wins the most races here — 14 of 27 (50.0% win share); Middle (5–9) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.47 (6 from 118).
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 and Settle position 4–6 win the most races here — 6 of 27 each (21.4% win share); Settle position 7–10 underperforms its market price — A/E 0.44 (2 from 43).
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 13 of 27 (46.4% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Data note: settling position is unknown for 139 runners in this sample, which dilutes the pace numbers.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions covers 11 runnings — indicative rather than conclusive.

  • Barrier draw: edge tilts to Inside (1–4) — A/E 1.08 (6 from 40); overall it's Wide (10+).
  • Pace: edge tilts to Settle position 11+ — A/E 1.82 (1 from 7); overall it's Settle position 4–6.
  • Market: read holds — Mid ($5–10) again on top: A/E 1.00 (3 from 22).

Jockeys & trainers

  • Jockey Damon Budler: 16 from 90 (17.8%) in the last 90 days (6 of those in the last 30) — rides #10 Be Guided here.
  • Trainer Ms J Clement: 21 from 121 (17.4%) in the last 90 days — saddles #3 Adviser here.
  • Jockey Mathew Cahill is 10 from 48 at today’s meeting profile (20.8% strike, A/E 1.48) and has #5 Alpine Rose here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1100m · 27 races (28 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)1021450%13.7%1.07
Middle (5–9)118621.4%5.1%0.47
Wide (10+)71828.6%11.3%1.19

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)56621.4%10.7%0.83
On-pace (4–6)42621.4%14.3%1.13
Midfield (7–10)4327.1%4.7%0.44
Backmarkers (11+)1113.6%9.1%1.11
Unknown1391346.4%9.4%0.89

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)7310.7%42.9%0.76
Pop ($2–5)531346.4%24.5%0.84
Mid ($5–10)46725%15.2%1.14
Roughie (>$10)185517.9%2.7%0.70

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.