Aqua West (Bm58) — a 1400m benchmark 58 at Dubbo, jumping at 16:10 on — ground, rail +3m. 17 runners engaged.
At the trip
Dubbo has staged 22 races at 1400m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.
- Barrier draw: Inside (1–4) wins the most races here — 8 of 22 (36.4% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
- Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 7 of 22 (31.8% win share); Settle position 7–10 underperforms its market price — A/E 0.46 (2 from 41).
- Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 12 of 22 (54.5% win share); Roughie (>$10) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.19 (1 from 141).
- Data note: settling position is unknown for 89 runners in this sample, which dilutes the pace numbers.
Rail effect
Grouping similar rail positions covers only 5 runnings — too small to lean on.
- For the record: Mid ($5–10) accounted for 3 of the 5 winners (3 from 14 runners, A/E 1.56) in that limited data — colour, not signal; the overall numbers above carry more weight.
Jockeys & trainers
- Trainer Anthony Mountney: 5 from 31 (16.1%) in the last 90 days — saddles #10 Ciao Bella Mia here.