Dubbo R8

16:10Aqua West (Bm58)
1400mBenchmark 58Rail: +3m
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 12 July 18:17 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Aqua West (Bm58)a 1400m benchmark 58 at Dubbo, jumping at 16:10 on ground, rail +3m. 17 runners engaged.

At the trip

Dubbo has staged 22 races at 1400m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Inside (1–4) wins the most races here — 8 of 22 (36.4% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 7 of 22 (31.8% win share); Settle position 7–10 underperforms its market price — A/E 0.46 (2 from 41).
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 12 of 22 (54.5% win share); Roughie (>$10) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.19 (1 from 141).
  • Data note: settling position is unknown for 89 runners in this sample, which dilutes the pace numbers.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions covers only 5 runnings — too small to lean on.

  • For the record: Mid ($5–10) accounted for 3 of the 5 winners (3 from 14 runners, A/E 1.56) in that limited data — colour, not signal; the overall numbers above carry more weight.

Jockeys & trainers

  • Trainer Anthony Mountney: 5 from 31 (16.1%) in the last 90 days — saddles #10 Ciao Bella Mia here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1400m · 22 races (22 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)87836.4%9.2%0.83
Middle (5–9)93731.8%7.5%0.63
Wide (10+)59731.8%11.9%1.15

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)52731.8%13.5%0.99
On-pace (4–6)39522.7%12.8%1.12
Midfield (7–10)4129.1%4.9%0.46
Backmarkers (11+)1800%0%0.00
Unknown89836.4%9%0.82

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)8418.2%50%0.91
Pop ($2–5)391254.5%30.8%1.15
Mid ($5–10)51522.7%9.8%0.73
Roughie (>$10)14114.5%0.7%0.19

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.