HoofMetricsdata · model · edge
← DubboMonday 13 July 2026

Dubbo R3

13:05Martin Collins Australia Mdn Hcp
1300mMaidenRail: +3m
Race AnalysisStatistics
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 12 July 18:17 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Martin Collins Australia Mdn Hcp — a 1300m maiden at Dubbo, jumping at 13:05 on — ground, rail +3m. 15 runners engaged.

At the trip

Dubbo has staged 26 races at 1300m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Middle (5–9) wins the most races here — 14 of 26 (51.9% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 9 of 26 (33.3% win share); the value band has been Settle position 4–6 — A/E 1.24 (8 from 57).
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 10 of 26 (37.0% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Data note: settling position is unknown for 80 runners in this sample, which dilutes the pace numbers.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions covers 9 runnings — indicative rather than conclusive.

  • Barrier draw: read holds — Wide (10+) again on top: A/E 1.75 (4 from 28).
  • Pace: edge tilts to Settle position 1–3 — A/E 1.62 (6 from 24); overall it's Settle position 4–6.
  • Market: read holds — Roughie (>$10) again on top: A/E 1.22 (3 from 63).

Jockeys & trainers

  • Jockey Nick Palmer: 6 from 39 (15.4%) in the last 30 days — rides #15 Fierce Impulse here.
  • Trainer Anthony Mountney: 5 from 31 (16.1%) in the last 90 days — saddles #4 Setta Icon here.
  • Jockey Mathew Cahill is 10 from 48 at today’s meeting profile (20.8% strike, A/E 1.48) and has #12 Encampment here.
  • Trainer G D Lunn is 4 from 34 at today’s meeting profile (11.8% strike, A/E 1.45) and has #11 Chrislyn here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1300m · 26 races (27 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)97725.9%7.2%0.61
Middle (5–9)1191451.9%11.8%0.95
Wide (10+)72622.2%8.3%1.09

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)57933.3%15.8%1.02
On-pace (4–6)57829.6%14%1.24
Midfield (7–10)63311.1%4.8%0.45
Backmarkers (11+)3100%0%0.00
Unknown80725.9%8.8%0.83

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)6311.1%50%0.72
Pop ($2–5)421037%23.8%0.88
Mid ($5–10)73829.6%11%0.82
Roughie (>$10)167622.2%3.6%0.92

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.