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← Saturday 4 July 2026NZEarly preview · published 3 July 14:10 AEST — updated race morning

Te Rapa

—Rail: Out 12m—10:10–14:22
Early mail — tomorrow's fields. Fields, barriers and stats published early (3 July 14:10 AEST). Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

Meeting overview

Te Rapa in NZ hosts a provincial meeting on —. The rail is Out 12m. There are 8 races scheduled from 10:10 to 14:22.

The card

Distances run from 1,200m to 2,400m across the card. The class mix is 1 maiden, 4 benchmark races, and 3 other races. The card is spread across sprint, middle-distance and staying ranges. The feature race of the day is Group One Turf Bar Sprint.

What history says

Over 173 races from 2025-05-03 to 2026-06-13, settling position flags backmarkers (11+) as the clearest profile, underperforming market expectation (0.47 A/E, 3.3% strike rate).

Trainer L O'sullivan & A Scott has 7 runners and a 14.9% local strike rate from 134 runs (1.01 A/E) and Jockey Craig Grylls has 3 runners and a 20.0% local strike rate from 75 runs (1.21 A/E).

This overview is generated automatically from real race data by the HoofMetrics data engine — it is not AI-written. If you have feedback, email hello@hoofmetrics.com.Generated by HoofMetrics data engine (deterministic).

Track profile: Te Rapa

173 races · 1878 runners · since 2025-05-03

Today’s angles — 2+ runners here today & A/E > 1

TC J Wood3 todayA/E 2.09JA Lawson-Carroll3 todayA/E 1.51TP Nelson & C Mcdougal2 todayA/E 1.41JSam McNab6 todayA/E 1.29TMs M Falconer2 todayA/E 1.22JCraig Grylls3 todayA/E 1.21JJack Taplin5 todayA/E 1.19TMark Walker & Sam Bergerson2 todayA/E 1.19TS R Autridge2 todayA/E 1.09TR R Manning4 todayA/E 1.08JMasahiro Hashizume7 todayA/E 1.02JHayley Hassman5 todayA/E 1.02TL O'sullivan & A Scott7 todayA/E 1.01

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)6346638.2%10.4%0.89
Middle (5–9)7436135.3%8.2%0.72
Wide (10+)5014626.6%9.2%0.96

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)91126.9%13.2%0.92
On-pace (4–6)89116.4%12.4%1.12
Midfield (7–10)10252.9%4.9%0.61
Backmarkers (11+)6021.2%3.3%0.47
Unknown153614382.7%9.3%0.84

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)1763.5%35.3%0.57
Pop ($2–5)2556235.8%24.3%0.84
Mid ($5–10)4725934.1%12.5%0.90
Roughie (>$10)11294626.6%4.1%0.81

A/E = actual wins ÷ market-expected wins (Σ 1/SP). Above 1.0 (green) beats the market here; below 0.9 (red) lags. Strong bias day = a past meeting where one run-style won >65% of races (≥5 winners). “Today” = runners engaged here today.