Te Rapa R5

12:37Group One Turf Bar Sprint

1200mOpenRail: Out 12mEarly preview · published 3 July 14:13 AEST — updated race morning

Races1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8Track

Early mail — tomorrow's fields. Fields, barriers and stats published early (3 July 14:13 AEST). Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

Early model rankings — previewearly predictions · not final

Early model predictions only. These WILL MOST LIKELY change with final scratchings, jockey changes and track condition updates — the final day's predictions and commentary are published race morning.

Early model — previewEarly predictions — these WILL MOST LIKELY change with final scratchings, jockey changes and track condition updatesEntropy2.86top 3

Ranked 1st

2. Little Bit Of Love

Sam McNab (4)

Ranked 2nd

4. Force Of Nature

(7)

Ranked 3rd

7. Reward Smile

Masahiro Hashizume (1)

Predicted speed mapback → finish →

Backmarkers0

settle 11+

—

Midfield2

settle 7–10

7Reward Smile(1)

2Little Bit Of Love(4)

On-pace3

settle 3–6

6Gospodin(2)

3Dusty Road(6)

4Force Of Nature(7)

Leaders3

pushing for the lead

5Cleat(3)

9Jethro Tull(5)

8Caitlyns Wish(8)

Historical overview

Across the 40 sampled runnings of 1200m at Te Rapa: Unknown — 33 of 40 winners (82.5% of winners, 9.6% strike, 0.84 A/E). No winner in this sample settled 7–10 back. From the gates, Wide (10+) — 14 of 40 winners (35.0% of winners, 13.6% strike, 1.15 A/E).

Today's going is not yet confirmed, so no going-specific split is shown — the broad sample above carries the read until race morning.

Market history at this trip: odds-on favourites are 3 from 4 (75.0% strike, 1.06 A/E); roughies (>$10) supply 17.5% of winners.

Historical leans

Unknown is the strongest settle band on the sample
Wide (10+) barriers lead the draw splits
Short-priced runners have historically held their market at this trip

Deterministic data read — figures restated from this track and trip's sampled runnings, no interpretation applied. The full speed-map read and model picks follow race morning after final scratchings.

This overview is generated automatically from real race data by the HoofMetrics data engine — it is not AI-written. If you have feedback, email hello@hoofmetrics.com.Generated by HoofMetrics data engine (deterministic).

Full speed-map read and model picks arrive race morning, once final scratchings and track condition are known.

Distance stats

Distance

1200m · 40 races (40 winners)

Barrier draw

	Runs	Wins	% Win	SR	A/E
Inside (1–4)	142	13	32.5%	9.2%	0.74
Middle (5–9)	168	13	32.5%	7.7%	0.71
Wide (10+)	103	14	35%	13.6%	1.15

Settling position

	Runs	Wins	% Win	SR	A/E
Leaders (1–3)	22	4	10%	18.2%	1.00
On-pace (4–6)	21	2	5%	9.5%	0.87
Midfield (7–10)	21	0	0%	0%	0.00
Backmarkers (11+)	7	1	2.5%	14.3%	3.18
Unknown	342	33	82.5%	9.6%	0.84

Market (SP)

	Runs	Wins	% Win	SR	A/E
Odds-on (≤$2)	4	3	7.5%	75%	1.06
Pop ($2–5)	64	17	42.5%	26.6%	0.90
Mid ($5–10)	102	13	32.5%	12.7%	0.92
Roughie (>$10)	243	7	17.5%	2.9%	0.58