HoofMetricsdata · model · edge
← Te RapaSaturday 4 July 2026

Te Rapa R8

14:22John Young Family (Bm65)
1600mBenchmark 65Rail: Out 12mEarly preview · published 3 July 14:13 AEST — updated race morning
Races12345678
Early mail — tomorrow's fields. Fields, barriers and stats published early (3 July 14:13 AEST). Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.
Early model rankings — previewearly predictions · not final
Early model predictions only. These WILL MOST LIKELY change with final scratchings, jockey changes and track condition updates — the final day's predictions and commentary are published race morning.
Early model — previewEarly predictions — these WILL MOST LIKELY change with final scratchings, jockey changes and track condition updatesEntropy3.95top 3
Ranked 1st
3. Starclan
Samantha Collett (7)
Ranked 2nd
2. Arjay's Flight
Tom Wigram (11)
Ranked 3rd
4. Don's Legacy
Hayley Hassman (1)
Predicted speed mapback → finish →
Backmarkers3
settle 11+
2 Arjay's Flight(11)
9 Another Floozie(16)
10 Afterglo(17)
Midfield10
settle 7–10
4 Don's Legacy(1)
18 Mister Meaner(3)
19 Sibella(4)
12 Foxglove(6)
3 Starclan(7)
5 Ever Charm(8)
1 Bannen(9)
6 Mineshaft(10)
16 Whistler(14)
13 Gina Rosa(18)
On-pace5
settle 3–6
17 Bertie Wooster(2)
14 Suavetta(5)
11 Trouble Maker(12)
7 Shameless Boy(13)
8 Sugar Daddy(15)
Leaders0
pushing for the lead
—

Historical overview

Across the 31 sampled runnings of 1600m at Te Rapa: Unknown — 27 of 31 winners (87.1% of winners, 8.7% strike, 0.83 A/E). From the gates, Inside (1–4) — 11 of 31 winners (35.5% of winners, 9.6% strike, 0.94 A/E).

Today's going is not yet confirmed, so no going-specific split is shown — the broad sample above carries the read until race morning.

Market history at this trip: odds-on favourites are 2 from 5 (40.0% strike, 0.63 A/E); roughies (>$10) supply 32.3% of winners.

Historical leans

  • Unknown is the strongest settle band on the sample
  • Inside (1–4) barriers lead the draw splits

Deterministic data read — figures restated from this track and trip's sampled runnings, no interpretation applied. The full speed-map read and model picks follow race morning after final scratchings.

This overview is generated automatically from real race data by the HoofMetrics data engine — it is not AI-written. If you have feedback, email hello@hoofmetrics.com.Generated by HoofMetrics data engine (deterministic).

Full speed-map read and model picks arrive race morning, once final scratchings and track condition are known.

Distance stats

Distance
1600m · 31 races (31 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)1151135.5%9.6%0.94
Middle (5–9)1281032.3%7.8%0.69
Wide (10+)1211032.3%8.3%0.92

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)1200%0%0.00
On-pace (4–6)1239.7%25%2.24
Midfield (7–10)1613.2%6.2%0.62
Backmarkers (11+)1300%0%0.00
Unknown3112787.1%8.7%0.83

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)526.5%40%0.63
Pop ($2–5)35825.8%22.9%0.80
Mid ($5–10)891135.5%12.4%0.92
Roughie (>$10)2351032.3%4.3%0.84