Muswellbrook R4

14:10Big Dance Day @ MRC 3 Nov Mdn Hcp

1450mMaidenRail: 5m from 1200m to 300m where cutaway applies

Races1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8Track

Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 6 July 14:09 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

Big Dance Day @ MRC 3 Nov Mdn Hcp — a 1450m maiden at Muswellbrook, jumping at 14:10 on — ground, rail 5m from 1200m to 300m where cutaway applies. 11 runners engaged.

At the trip

Muswellbrook has staged 20 races at 1450m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

Barrier draw: Inside (1–4) wins the most races here — 13 of 20 (65.0% win share); Wide (10+) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.00 (0 from 39).
Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 10 of 20 (50.0% win share) — and beats its market price too (A/E 1.20).
Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 12 of 20 (60.0% win share); Roughie (>$10) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.42 (2 from 105).

Jockeys & trainers

Jockey Olivia Dalton: 8 from 44 (18.2%) in the last 30 days — rides #5 Strasbelle here.
Jockey Mikayla Weir: 14 from 83 (16.9%) in the last 30 days — rides #10 Linda's Princess here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance

1450m · 20 races (20 winners)

Barrier draw

	Runs	Wins	% Win	SR	A/E
Inside (1–4)	75	13	65%	17.3%	1.08
Middle (5–9)	82	7	35%	8.5%	0.79
Wide (10+)	39	0	0%	0%	0.00

Settling position

	Runs	Wins	% Win	SR	A/E
Leaders (1–3)	57	10	50%	17.5%	1.20
On-pace (4–6)	55	5	25%	9.1%	0.61
Midfield (7–10)	53	3	15%	5.7%	0.59
Backmarkers (11+)	18	1	5%	5.6%	0.71
Unknown	13	1	5%	7.7%	0.74

Market (SP)

	Runs	Wins	% Win	SR	A/E
Odds-on (≤$2)	4	2	10%	50%	0.86
Pop ($2–5)	37	12	60%	32.4%	1.15
Mid ($5–10)	50	4	20%	8%	0.59
Roughie (>$10)	105	2	10%	1.9%	0.42