HoofMetricsdata · model · edge
← Belmont ParkSaturday 11 July 2026

Belmont Park R3

16:04MC Polytrack Hcp
1200mOpenRail: +8m
Race AnalysisStatistics
Races12345678

Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 10 July 14:13 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

MC Polytrack Hcp — a 1200m open at Belmont Park, jumping at 16:04 on — ground, rail +8m. 12 runners engaged.

At the trip

Belmont Park has staged 90 races at 1200m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Middle (5–9) wins the most races here — 45 of 90 (49.5% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 33 of 90 (36.3% win share); Settle position 11+ underperforms its market price — A/E 0.15 (1 from 114).
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 51 of 90 (56.0% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions (+8m ±1m) covers 17 runnings — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: edge tilts to Wide (10+) — A/E 0.91 (2 from 31); overall it's Middle (5–9).
  • Pace: read holds — Settle position 7–10 again on top: A/E 0.97 (5 from 51).
  • Market: edge tilts to Mid ($5–10) — A/E 1.08 (4 from 26); overall it's Odds-on (≤$2).

Jockeys & trainers

  • Jockey William Pike: 63 from 219 (28.8%) in the last 90 days (25 of those in the last 30) — rides #10 Deep Lyric here.
  • Jockey Clint Johnston-Porter: 9 from 51 (17.6%) in the last 30 days — rides #3 Bannered here.
  • Trainer G & A Williams: 31 from 112 (27.7%) in the last 90 days (13 of those in the last 30) — saddles #7 Elite Beau here.
  • Trainer Simon Miller: 6 from 22 (27.3%) in the last 30 days — saddles #2 Mardusa here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1200m · 90 races (91 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)3543336.3%9.3%0.71
Middle (5–9)4284549.5%10.5%0.96
Wide (10+)1891314.3%6.9%0.82

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)2703336.3%12.2%0.89
On-pace (4–6)2702729.7%10%0.83
Midfield (7–10)3173033%9.5%0.91
Backmarkers (11+)11411.1%0.9%0.15

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)1099.9%90%1.48
Pop ($2–5)1865156%27.4%0.92
Mid ($5–10)1811617.6%8.8%0.66
Roughie (>$10)5941516.5%2.5%0.63

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.