Belmont Park R5

17:17Morley Growers Market (Bm66+)
2200mBenchMark 66+Rail: +8m
Races12345678

Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 10 July 14:13 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Morley Growers Market (Bm66+)a 2200m benchmark 66+ at Belmont Park, jumping at 17:17 on ground, rail +8m. 14 runners engaged.

At the trip

Belmont Park has staged 11 races at 2200m in our sample — indicative rather than conclusive.

  • Barrier draw: Inside (1–4) wins the most races here — 5 of 11 (45.5% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Pace: Settle position 7–10 wins the most races here — 5 of 11 (45.5% win share); Settle position 4–6 underperforms its market price — A/E 0.59 (2 from 33).
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 7 of 11 (63.6% win share) — and beats its market price too (A/E 1.24).

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions (+8m ±1m) covers only 2 runnings — too small to lean on.

  • For the record: Settle position 7–10 accounted for 2 of the 2 winners (2 from 8 runners, A/E 2.85) in that limited data — colour, not signal; the overall numbers above carry more weight.

Jockeys & trainers

  • Together, William Pike × Michael Grantham are 16 from 44 (36.4%) in the last 90 days (7 of those in the last 30) — they combine with #3 Citino here.
  • Jockey Clint Johnston-Porter: 9 from 51 (17.6%) in the last 30 days — rides #5 I Love Your Smile here.
  • Jockey Brandon Louis: 5 from 29 (17.2%) in the last 30 days — rides #12 Pointless Praise here.
  • Jockey Holly Watson is 15 from 119 at today’s meeting profile (12.6% strike, A/E 1.35) and has #9 Admired here.
  • Trainer J P Taylor is 12 from 74 at today’s meeting profile (16.2% strike, A/E 1.31) and has #4 Prophet And Power here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
2200m · 11 races (11 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)44545.5%11.4%0.99
Middle (5–9)50436.4%8%0.75
Wide (10+)31218.2%6.5%0.67

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)33327.3%9.1%0.88
On-pace (4–6)33218.2%6.1%0.59
Midfield (7–10)39545.5%12.8%0.95
Backmarkers (11+)2019.1%5%0.74

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)219.1%50%0.86
Pop ($2–5)21763.6%33.3%1.24
Mid ($5–10)2100%0%0.00
Roughie (>$10)81327.3%3.7%0.78

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.