Belmont Park R8

19:01Lawn Pride Australia (Rs1mw)
1400mRest 1 Metro WinRail: +8m
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 10 July 14:13 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Lawn Pride Australia (Rs1mw)a 1400m rest 1 metro win at Belmont Park, jumping at 19:01 on ground, rail +8m. 15 runners engaged.

At the trip

Belmont Park has staged 68 races at 1400m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Middle (5–9) wins the most races here — 33 of 68 (48.5% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Pace: Settle position 7–10 wins the most races here — 24 of 68 (35.3% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 27 of 68 (39.7% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions (+8m ±1m) covers 12 runnings — indicative rather than conclusive.

  • Barrier draw: edge tilts to Inside (1–4) — A/E 0.95 (6 from 48); overall it's Wide (10+).
  • Pace: edge tilts to Settle position 4–6 — A/E 1.49 (7 from 35); overall it's Settle position 7–10.
  • Market: read holds — Mid ($5–10) again on top: A/E 1.25 (4 from 24).

Jockeys & trainers

  • Together, William Pike × G & A Williams are 18 from 53 (34.0%) in the last 90 days (7 of those in the last 30) — they combine with #10 Reminiscence here.
  • Together, Lucy F Fiore × G & A Williams are 5 from 20 (25.0%) in the last 90 days — they combine with #6 Moonwalk here.
  • Jockey Clint Johnston-Porter: 9 from 51 (17.6%) in the last 30 days — rides #11 Choux Shoe here.
  • Trainer Simon Miller: 6 from 22 (27.3%) in the last 30 days — saddles #7 Rock The Market, #11 Choux Shoe here.
  • Trainer Mitchell Pateman: 17 from 81 (21.0%) in the last 90 days (6 of those in the last 30) — saddles #9 Diamonds'n'rubies here.
  • Jockey Holly Watson is 15 from 119 at today’s meeting profile (12.6% strike, A/E 1.35) and has #9 Diamonds'n'rubies here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1400m · 68 races (68 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)2701927.9%7%0.63
Middle (5–9)3183348.5%10.4%0.93
Wide (10+)1941623.5%8.2%0.94

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)2042029.4%9.8%0.70
On-pace (4–6)2021725%8.4%0.76
Midfield (7–10)2482435.3%9.7%1.04
Backmarkers (11+)126710.3%5.6%0.82
Unknown200%0%

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)1768.8%35.3%0.57
Pop ($2–5)1042739.7%26%0.89
Mid ($5–10)1682232.4%13.1%0.98
Roughie (>$10)4911319.1%2.6%0.67

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.