Belmont Park R7

18:27Beaufine Stakes
1000mListedRail: +8m
Races12345678

Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 10 July 14:13 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Beaufine Stakesa 1000m listed at Belmont Park, jumping at 18:27 on ground, rail +8m. 18 runners engaged.

At the trip

Belmont Park has staged 75 races at 1000m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Inside (1–4) wins the most races here — 41 of 75 (54.7% win share); Wide (10+) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.51 (2 from 47).
  • Pace: Settle position 4–6 wins the most races here — 35 of 75 (46.7% win share); Settle position 11+ underperforms its market price — A/E 0.00 (0 from 21).
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 38 of 75 (50.7% win share); Roughie (>$10) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.50 (7 from 333).

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions (+8m ±1m) covers 16 runnings — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: read holds — Inside (1–4) again on top: A/E 0.86 (10 from 64).
  • Pace: edge tilts to Settle position 7–10 — A/E 1.31 (5 from 33); overall it's Settle position 4–6.
  • Market: read holds — Odds-on (≤$2) again on top: A/E 1.07 (4 from 6).

Jockeys & trainers

  • Together, William Pike × Simon Miller are 5 from 9 (55.6%) in the last 90 days — they combine with #13 Madhi Girl here.
  • Jockey Clint Johnston-Porter: 9 from 51 (17.6%) in the last 30 days — rides #16 Twisted Steel here.
  • Jockey Lucy F Fiore: 10 from 60 (16.7%) in the last 30 days — rides #10 Immortal Bliss here.
  • Trainer D M Luciani: 5 from 29 (17.2%) in the last 90 days — saddles #1 Oscar's Fortune here.
  • Trainer Mack Hall: 5 from 28 (17.9%) in the last 30 days — saddles #6 Yonga Lass here.
  • Jockey Jason Brown is 4 from 33 at today’s meeting profile (12.1% strike, A/E 1.62) and has #7 Boots Like Bruce here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1000m · 75 races (75 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)3004154.7%13.7%0.86
Middle (5–9)3043242.7%10.5%0.83
Wide (10+)4722.7%4.3%0.51

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)2252533.3%11.1%0.66
On-pace (4–6)2203546.7%15.9%1.02
Midfield (7–10)1841520%8.2%0.88
Backmarkers (11+)2100%0%0.00
Unknown100%0%

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)211317.3%61.9%1.04
Pop ($2–5)1373850.7%27.7%0.90
Mid ($5–10)1591722.7%10.7%0.80
Roughie (>$10)33379.3%2.1%0.50

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.