Belmont Park R4

16:39Glenroy Chaff (Rs1mw)
1000mRest 1 Metro WinRail: +8m
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 10 July 14:13 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Glenroy Chaff (Rs1mw)a 1000m rest 1 metro win at Belmont Park, jumping at 16:39 on ground, rail +8m. 13 runners engaged.

At the trip

Belmont Park has staged 75 races at 1000m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Inside (1–4) wins the most races here — 41 of 75 (54.7% win share); Wide (10+) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.51 (2 from 47).
  • Pace: Settle position 4–6 wins the most races here — 35 of 75 (46.7% win share); Settle position 11+ underperforms its market price — A/E 0.00 (0 from 21).
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 38 of 75 (50.7% win share); Roughie (>$10) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.50 (7 from 333).

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions (+8m ±1m) covers 16 runnings — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: read holds — Inside (1–4) again on top: A/E 0.86 (10 from 64).
  • Pace: edge tilts to Settle position 7–10 — A/E 1.31 (5 from 33); overall it's Settle position 4–6.
  • Market: read holds — Odds-on (≤$2) again on top: A/E 1.07 (4 from 6).

Jockeys & trainers

  • Together, Lucy F Fiore × P J Fernie are 11 from 31 (35.5%) in the last 90 days — they combine with #12 Call Me Frosty here.
  • Jockey William Pike: 63 from 219 (28.8%) in the last 90 days (25 of those in the last 30) — rides #7 Brazen Butcher here.
  • Jockey Clint Johnston-Porter: 9 from 51 (17.6%) in the last 30 days — rides #11 Bonnie Lad here.
  • Trainer Sue Olive: 8 from 31 (25.8%) in the last 90 days — saddles #5 Catch The Red Eye here.
  • Trainer Josh Brown: 5 from 28 (17.9%) in the last 90 days — saddles #7 Brazen Butcher here.
  • Jockey Holly Watson is 15 from 119 at today’s meeting profile (12.6% strike, A/E 1.35) and has #13 Excess Baggage here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1000m · 75 races (75 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)3004154.7%13.7%0.86
Middle (5–9)3043242.7%10.5%0.83
Wide (10+)4722.7%4.3%0.51

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)2252533.3%11.1%0.66
On-pace (4–6)2203546.7%15.9%1.02
Midfield (7–10)1841520%8.2%0.88
Backmarkers (11+)2100%0%0.00
Unknown100%0%

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)211317.3%61.9%1.04
Pop ($2–5)1373850.7%27.7%0.90
Mid ($5–10)1591722.7%10.7%0.80
Roughie (>$10)33379.3%2.1%0.50

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.