Glenroy Chaff (Rs1mw) — a 1000m rest 1 metro win at Belmont Park, jumping at 16:39 on — ground, rail +8m. 13 runners engaged.
At the trip
Belmont Park has staged 75 races at 1000m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.
- Barrier draw: Inside (1–4) wins the most races here — 41 of 75 (54.7% win share); Wide (10+) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.51 (2 from 47).
- Pace: Settle position 4–6 wins the most races here — 35 of 75 (46.7% win share); Settle position 11+ underperforms its market price — A/E 0.00 (0 from 21).
- Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 38 of 75 (50.7% win share); Roughie (>$10) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.50 (7 from 333).
Rail effect
Grouping similar rail positions (+8m ±1m) covers 16 runnings — a sample worth weighting.
- Barrier draw: read holds — Inside (1–4) again on top: A/E 0.86 (10 from 64).
- Pace: edge tilts to Settle position 7–10 — A/E 1.31 (5 from 33); overall it's Settle position 4–6.
- Market: read holds — Odds-on (≤$2) again on top: A/E 1.07 (4 from 6).
Jockeys & trainers
- Together, Lucy F Fiore × P J Fernie are 11 from 31 (35.5%) in the last 90 days — they combine with #12 Call Me Frosty here.
- Jockey William Pike: 63 from 219 (28.8%) in the last 90 days (25 of those in the last 30) — rides #7 Brazen Butcher here.
- Jockey Clint Johnston-Porter: 9 from 51 (17.6%) in the last 30 days — rides #11 Bonnie Lad here.
- Trainer Sue Olive: 8 from 31 (25.8%) in the last 90 days — saddles #5 Catch The Red Eye here.
- Trainer Josh Brown: 5 from 28 (17.9%) in the last 90 days — saddles #7 Brazen Butcher here.
- Jockey Holly Watson is 15 from 119 at today’s meeting profile (12.6% strike, A/E 1.35) and has #13 Excess Baggage here.