McLardy McShane (Bm56) — a 2465m benchmark 56 at Geelong, jumping at 14:30 on — ground, rail out 9m 1700m - 800m, out 10m remainder. 17 runners engaged.
At the trip
Geelong has staged 7 races at 2465m in our sample — too small to base a decision on.
- Barrier draw: Middle (5–9) wins the most races here — 4 of 7 (57.1% win share); Inside (1–4) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.31 (1 from 25).
- Pace: Settle position 7–10 wins the most races here — 3 of 7 (42.9% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
- Market: Pop ($2–5) and Mid ($5–10) and Roughie (>$10) win the most races here — 2 of 7 each (28.6% win share); the value band has been Roughie (>$10) — A/E 1.44 (2 from 35).
Rail effect
Grouping similar rail positions (+9m ±1m) covers only 3 runnings — too small to lean on.
- For the record: Roughie (>$10) accounted for 2 of the 3 winners (2 from 17 runners, A/E 3.01) in that limited data — colour, not signal; the overall numbers above carry more weight.
Jockeys & trainers
- Jockey John Allen: 13 from 81 (16.0%) in the last 30 days — rides #8 Motiver here.
- Trainer A & J Williams: 5 from 19 (26.3%) in the last 90 days — saddles #7 What A Cross here.
- Trainer Jamie Edwards: 12 from 74 (16.2%) in the last 90 days — saddles #5 Reddivo here.
- Jockey Bailey Kinninmont is 2 from 14 at today’s meeting profile (14.3% strike, A/E 2.84) and has #1 Furtherest Point here.
- Jockey Joe Bowditch is 3 from 19 at today’s meeting profile (15.8% strike, A/E 1.91) and has #12 Parrot Club here.