Geelong R9

16:30Miramar Group Pty Ltd (Bm56)
1443mBenchmark 56Rail: Out 9m 1700m - 800m, Out 10m Remainder
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 9 July 14:08 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Miramar Group Pty Ltd (Bm56)a 1443m benchmark 56 at Geelong, jumping at 16:30 on ground, rail out 9m 1700m - 800m, out 10m remainder. 16 runners engaged.

At the trip

Geelong has staged 21 races at 1443m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Middle (5–9) wins the most races here — 12 of 21 (57.1% win share); Inside (1–4) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.58 (6 from 79).
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 9 of 21 (42.9% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 11 of 21 (52.4% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Data note: settling position is unknown for 32 runners in this sample, which dilutes the pace numbers.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions (+9m ±1m) covers 8 runnings — indicative rather than conclusive.

  • Barrier draw: edge tilts to Inside (1–4) — A/E 0.97 (4 from 28); overall it's Middle (5–9).
  • Pace: read holds — Settle position 1–3 again on top: A/E 1.40 (5 from 24).
  • Market: edge tilts to Mid ($5–10) — A/E 1.13 (4 from 25); overall it's Roughie (>$10).

Jockeys & trainers

  • Jockey Olivia East: 12 from 66 (18.2%) in the last 90 days — rides #6 Dustland Fairytale here.
  • Jockey Jackson Radley: 10 from 53 (18.9%) in the last 30 days — rides #8 Queen Of Cordoba here.
  • Trainer C Maher: 28 from 169 (16.6%) in the last 30 days — saddles #12 Brroosha here.
  • Jockey Bailey Kinninmont is 2 from 14 at today’s meeting profile (14.3% strike, A/E 2.84) and has #1 Honey Maker here.
  • Jockey Ryan Hurdle is 4 from 37 at today’s meeting profile (10.8% strike, A/E 1.67) and has #16 Wild Ruby here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1443m · 21 races (21 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)79628.6%7.6%0.58
Middle (5–9)901257.1%13.3%1.06
Wide (10+)36314.3%8.3%0.79

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)54942.9%16.7%1.01
On-pace (4–6)54523.8%9.3%0.72
Midfield (7–10)57419%7%0.72
Backmarkers (11+)800%0%0.00
Unknown32314.3%9.4%0.82

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)200%0%0.00
Pop ($2–5)441152.4%25%0.84
Mid ($5–10)46523.8%10.9%0.81
Roughie (>$10)113523.8%4.4%1.03

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.