HoofMetricsdata · model · edge
← RandwickSaturday 11 July 2026

Randwick R1

11:10Elite Sand And Soil Hcp
1400mOpenRail: +9m
Race AnalysisStatistics
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 10 July 14:13 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Elite Sand And Soil Hcp — a 1400m open at Randwick, jumping at 11:10 on — ground, rail +9m. 11 runners engaged.

At the trip

Randwick has staged 50 races at 1400m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Middle (5–9) wins the most races here — 21 of 50 (42.0% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Pace: Settle position 4–6 wins the most races here — 16 of 50 (32.0% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 30 of 50 (60.0% win share); Roughie (>$10) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.56 (9 from 388).

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions (+9m ±1m) covers only 7 runnings — too small to lean on.

  • For the record: Pop ($2–5) accounted for 6 of the 7 winners (6 from 14 runners, A/E 1.65) in that limited data — colour, not signal; the overall numbers above carry more weight.

Jockeys & trainers

  • Together, Aaron Bullock × K A Lees are 4 from 17 (23.5%) in the last 90 days — they combine with #2 Rumdabar here.
  • Jockey Rachel King: 29 from 152 (19.1%) in the last 90 days — rides #11 Circus Queen here.
  • Jockey Siena Grima: 11 from 66 (16.7%) in the last 30 days — rides #10 Woodenbridge here.
  • Trainer Michael Freedman: 24 from 142 (16.9%) in the last 90 days (9 of those in the last 30) — saddles #7 Ultimate Warrior here.
  • Trainer G Ryan & S Alexiou: 6 from 38 (15.8%) in the last 30 days — saddles #10 Woodenbridge here.
  • Trainer David Payne is 5 from 32 at today’s meeting profile (15.6% strike, A/E 2.04) and has #5 Gold Globe, #9 Proxima Dea here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1400m · 50 races (50 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)1891632%8.5%0.81
Middle (5–9)2382142%8.8%0.83
Wide (10+)1761326%7.4%0.88

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)1501530%10%0.79
On-pace (4–6)1501632%10.7%0.87
Midfield (7–10)1921428%7.3%0.89
Backmarkers (11+)110510%4.5%0.77
Unknown100%0%0.00

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)424%50%0.84
Pop ($2–5)933060%32.3%1.18
Mid ($5–10)118918%7.6%0.57
Roughie (>$10)388918%2.3%0.56

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.