HoofMetricsdata · model · edge
← RandwickSaturday 11 July 2026

Randwick R10

16:35TAB (Bm78)
1400mBenchmark 78Rail: +9m
Race AnalysisStatistics
Races12345678910

Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 10 July 14:13 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

TAB (Bm78) — a 1400m benchmark 78 at Randwick, jumping at 16:35 on — ground, rail +9m. 12 runners engaged.

At the trip

Randwick has staged 50 races at 1400m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Middle (5–9) wins the most races here — 21 of 50 (42.0% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Pace: Settle position 4–6 wins the most races here — 16 of 50 (32.0% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 30 of 50 (60.0% win share); Roughie (>$10) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.56 (9 from 388).

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions (+9m ±1m) covers only 7 runnings — too small to lean on.

  • For the record: Pop ($2–5) accounted for 6 of the 7 winners (6 from 14 runners, A/E 1.65) in that limited data — colour, not signal; the overall numbers above carry more weight.

Jockeys & trainers

  • Together, Rachel King × Bjorn Baker are 10 from 30 (33.3%) in the last 90 days — they combine with #11 Miss Kim Kar here.
  • Together, Alysha Collett × Annabel & Rob Archibald are 3 from 17 (17.6%) in the last 90 days — they combine with #4 Bella Corazon here.
  • Jockey Siena Grima: 11 from 66 (16.7%) in the last 30 days — rides #10 Hurry Miss here.
  • Trainer Travis Doudle: 16 from 90 (17.8%) in the last 90 days — saddles #2 Swiftie Harriet here.
  • Trainer C J Waller: 34 from 216 (15.7%) in the last 30 days — saddles #8 Full Hao, #14 Nandina here.
  • Jockey Winona Costin is 3 from 50 at today’s meeting profile (6.0% strike, A/E 1.83) and has #7 Brigidine Gal here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1400m · 50 races (50 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)1891632%8.5%0.81
Middle (5–9)2382142%8.8%0.83
Wide (10+)1761326%7.4%0.88

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)1501530%10%0.79
On-pace (4–6)1501632%10.7%0.87
Midfield (7–10)1921428%7.3%0.89
Backmarkers (11+)110510%4.5%0.77
Unknown100%0%0.00

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)424%50%0.84
Pop ($2–5)933060%32.3%1.18
Mid ($5–10)118918%7.6%0.57
Roughie (>$10)388918%2.3%0.56

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.