HoofMetricsdata · model · edge
← BallaratSunday 12 July 2026

Ballarat R1

12:00Global Turf Mdn Plate
1200mMaidenRail: True
Race AnalysisStatistics
Races12345678

Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 11 July 14:08 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Global Turf Mdn Plate — a 1200m maiden at Ballarat, jumping at 12:00 on — ground, rail true. 9 runners engaged.

At the trip

Ballarat has staged 39 races at 1200m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Middle (5–9) wins the most races here — 23 of 39 (59.0% win share); Inside (1–4) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.59 (12 from 150).
  • Pace: Settle position 4–6 wins the most races here — 15 of 39 (38.5% win share); Settle position 11+ underperforms its market price — A/E 0.53 (1 from 32).
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 16 of 39 (41.0% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions covers 16 runnings — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: read holds — Middle (5–9) again on top: A/E 1.11 (9 from 73).
  • Pace: read holds — Settle position 4–6 again on top: A/E 1.23 (8 from 48).
  • Market: read holds — Roughie (>$10) again on top: A/E 1.36 (5 from 90).

Jockeys & trainers

  • Trainer T & C McEvoy: 26 from 144 (18.1%) in the last 90 days (11 of those in the last 30) — saddles #7 Dream Suite here.
  • Jockey Luke Currie is 13 from 49 at today’s meeting profile (26.5% strike, A/E 1.47) and has #4 Sparkling Award here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1200m · 39 races (39 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)1501230.8%8%0.59
Middle (5–9)1752359%13.1%1.13
Wide (10+)64410.3%6.2%0.59

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)1141230.8%10.5%0.72
On-pace (4–6)1141538.5%13.2%0.99
Midfield (7–10)1171025.6%8.5%0.79
Backmarkers (11+)3212.6%3.1%0.53
Unknown1212.6%8.3%0.82

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)10512.8%50%0.90
Pop ($2–5)721641%22.2%0.77
Mid ($5–10)93820.5%8.6%0.65
Roughie (>$10)2141025.6%4.7%1.13

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.