Ballarat R6

15:20Hygain Edge (Bm66)
1400mBenchmark 66Rail: True
Races12345678

Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 11 July 14:08 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Hygain Edge (Bm66)a 1400m benchmark 66 at Ballarat, jumping at 15:20 on ground, rail true. 12 runners engaged.

At the trip

Ballarat has staged 26 races at 1400m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Inside (1–4) wins the most races here — 12 of 26 (46.2% win share); the value band has been Wide (10+) — A/E 1.40 (5 from 38).
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 12 of 26 (46.2% win share); Settle position 11+ underperforms its market price — A/E 0.00 (0 from 21).
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 14 of 26 (53.8% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions covers 11 runnings — indicative rather than conclusive.

  • Barrier draw: read holds — Wide (10+) again on top: A/E 1.33 (2 from 18).
  • Pace: read holds — Settle position 1–3 again on top: A/E 1.46 (7 from 33).
  • Market: edge tilts to Mid ($5–10) — A/E 1.93 (5 from 21); overall it's Pop ($2–5).

Jockeys & trainers

  • Trainer Peter Gelagotis: 8 from 46 (17.4%) in the last 90 days — saddles #4 Margie's Boy here.
  • Trainer Patrick Payne: 38 from 199 (19.1%) in the last 90 days (15 of those in the last 30) — saddles #5 Zorro's Flight here.
  • Trainer Mitchell Freedman is 4 from 17 at today’s meeting profile (23.5% strike, A/E 2.00) and has #8 Bon's Bling, #12 Wild Ruby here.
  • Trainer Archie Alexander is 8 from 32 at today’s meeting profile (25.0% strike, A/E 1.54) and has #9 Puglia here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1400m · 26 races (26 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)1031246.2%11.7%0.85
Middle (5–9)117934.6%7.7%0.64
Wide (10+)38519.2%13.2%1.40

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)781246.2%15.4%1.06
On-pace (4–6)78726.9%9%0.62
Midfield (7–10)81726.9%8.6%0.89
Backmarkers (11+)2100%0%0.00

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)627.7%33.3%0.56
Pop ($2–5)531453.8%26.4%0.92
Mid ($5–10)58623.1%10.3%0.83
Roughie (>$10)141415.4%2.8%0.72

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.