Ballarat R3

13:20LAB Plumbing Mdn Plate
1000mMaidenRail: True
Races12345678

Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 11 July 14:08 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

LAB Plumbing Mdn Platea 1000m maiden at Ballarat, jumping at 13:20 on ground, rail true. 9 runners engaged.

At the trip

Ballarat has staged 28 races at 1000m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Middle (5–9) wins the most races here — 14 of 28 (50.0% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 15 of 28 (53.6% win share); Settle position 7–10 underperforms its market price — A/E 0.30 (2 from 69).
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 15 of 28 (53.6% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions covers only 5 runnings — too small to lean on.

  • For the record: Pop ($2–5) accounted for 3 of the 5 winners (3 from 9 runners, A/E 1.29) in that limited data — colour, not signal; the overall numbers above carry more weight.

Jockeys & trainers

  • Jockey Brad Rawiller: 30 from 187 (16.0%) in the last 90 days — rides #4 Surviving Star here.
  • Jockey Jett Stanley is 3 from 16 at today’s meeting profile (18.8% strike, A/E 1.48) and has #10 Lumination here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1000m · 28 races (28 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)1101242.9%10.9%0.75
Middle (5–9)1161450%12.1%0.88
Wide (10+)2327.1%8.7%1.09

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)841553.6%17.9%1.09
On-pace (4–6)841035.7%11.9%0.80
Midfield (7–10)6927.1%2.9%0.30
Backmarkers (11+)1213.6%8.3%1.75

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)613.6%16.7%0.32
Pop ($2–5)591553.6%25.4%0.87
Mid ($5–10)58725%12.1%0.88
Roughie (>$10)126517.9%4%0.94

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.