Evergreen Turf (Bm66) — a 1600m benchmark 66 at Ballarat, jumping at 14:00 on — ground, rail true. 9 runners engaged.
At the trip
Ballarat has staged 21 races at 1600m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.
- Barrier draw: Middle (5–9) wins the most races here — 15 of 21 (71.4% win share) — and beats its market price too (A/E 1.21).
- Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 11 of 21 (52.4% win share); Settle position 7–10 underperforms its market price — A/E 0.53 (3 from 60).
- Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 14 of 21 (66.7% win share); Roughie (>$10) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.25 (1 from 102).
Rail effect
Grouping similar rail positions covers only 7 runnings — too small to lean on.
- For the record: Settle position 1–3 accounted for 5 of the 7 winners (5 from 21 runners, A/E 1.63) in that limited data — colour, not signal; the overall numbers above carry more weight.
Jockeys & trainers
- Together, Jabez Johnstone × C Maher are 16 from 70 (22.9%) in the last 90 days (8 of those in the last 30) — they combine with #6 Komito here.
- Jockey Brad Rawiller: 30 from 187 (16.0%) in the last 90 days — rides #5 Amphactor here.
- Trainer Nick Ryan: 15 from 78 (19.2%) in the last 90 days — saddles #3 Deadly Press here.
- Jockey Luke Currie is 13 from 49 at today’s meeting profile (26.5% strike, A/E 1.47) and has #3 Deadly Press here.