Manhari Mdn Plate — a 1600m maiden at Ballarat, jumping at 14:40 on — ground, rail true. 17 runners engaged.
At the trip
Ballarat has staged 21 races at 1600m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.
- Barrier draw: Middle (5–9) wins the most races here — 15 of 21 (71.4% win share) — and beats its market price too (A/E 1.21).
- Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 11 of 21 (52.4% win share); Settle position 7–10 underperforms its market price — A/E 0.53 (3 from 60).
- Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 14 of 21 (66.7% win share); Roughie (>$10) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.25 (1 from 102).
Rail effect
Grouping similar rail positions covers only 7 runnings — too small to lean on.
- For the record: Settle position 1–3 accounted for 5 of the 7 winners (5 from 21 runners, A/E 1.63) in that limited data — colour, not signal; the overall numbers above carry more weight.
Jockeys & trainers
- Together, John Allen × C Maher are 7 from 34 (20.6%) in the last 90 days — they combine with #14 Justibella here.
- Jockey Brad Rawiller: 30 from 187 (16.0%) in the last 90 days — rides #7 Lion City Express here.
- Trainer Archie Alexander: 10 from 64 (15.6%) in the last 90 days — saddles #15 Knucklehead here.
- Trainer Mitchell Freedman is 4 from 17 at today’s meeting profile (23.5% strike, A/E 2.00) and has #10 Wazza here.
- Trainer Ms M Cunningham is 2 from 41 at today’s meeting profile (4.9% strike, A/E 1.60) and has #12 Elegant Force here.