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← BallaratSunday 12 July 2026

Ballarat R7

16:00Sportsbet Green Tick Hcp (C1)
1200mClass 1Rail: True
Race AnalysisStatistics
Races12345678

Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 11 July 14:08 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Sportsbet Green Tick Hcp (C1) — a 1200m class 1 at Ballarat, jumping at 16:00 on — ground, rail true. 10 runners engaged.

At the trip

Ballarat has staged 39 races at 1200m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Middle (5–9) wins the most races here — 23 of 39 (59.0% win share); Inside (1–4) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.59 (12 from 150).
  • Pace: Settle position 4–6 wins the most races here — 15 of 39 (38.5% win share); Settle position 11+ underperforms its market price — A/E 0.53 (1 from 32).
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 16 of 39 (41.0% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions covers 16 runnings — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: read holds — Middle (5–9) again on top: A/E 1.11 (9 from 73).
  • Pace: read holds — Settle position 4–6 again on top: A/E 1.23 (8 from 48).
  • Market: read holds — Roughie (>$10) again on top: A/E 1.36 (5 from 90).

Jockeys & trainers

  • Jockey Jabez Johnstone: 22 from 115 (19.1%) in the last 90 days (8 of those in the last 30) — rides #9 Queen Christine here.
  • Trainer Mitchell Freedman is 4 from 17 at today’s meeting profile (23.5% strike, A/E 2.00) and has #7 Salizou here.
  • Jockey Luke Currie is 13 from 49 at today’s meeting profile (26.5% strike, A/E 1.47) and has #2 Golden Magnate here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1200m · 39 races (39 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)1501230.8%8%0.59
Middle (5–9)1752359%13.1%1.13
Wide (10+)64410.3%6.2%0.59

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)1141230.8%10.5%0.72
On-pace (4–6)1141538.5%13.2%0.99
Midfield (7–10)1171025.6%8.5%0.79
Backmarkers (11+)3212.6%3.1%0.53
Unknown1212.6%8.3%0.82

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)10512.8%50%0.90
Pop ($2–5)721641%22.2%0.77
Mid ($5–10)93820.5%8.6%0.65
Roughie (>$10)2141025.6%4.7%1.13

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.